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Methodology

Why should you trust our forecasts?

Veritium Political Insights is the solution to the election prediction industry's recent shortcomings. The Veritium team has analyzed over 30,000 data points from nearly 3,000 races dating back to 2004 in order to create completely empirical projections. We use the tool of big data to model future races based upon past occurrences. One of the most important factors that contributes to the success of our forecasts is our ability to choose which data to ignore. Our model shows the election of Donald Trump in 2016 fundamentally changed the down-ballot political landscape, and the rest of the election prediction industry is stuck in the past. Down-ballot races are increasingly nationalized, and we account for that in our forecasts. In 2021, voters overwhelmingly chose political parties to vote for instead of the candidates themselves. The reality is that polls are no longer a completely trustworthy source of information to base forecasts on. Although polling is helpful, our analysis has determined it needs to be adjusted and combined with other information to create accurate forecasts. A large portion of our forecasts consists of political environment analysis. Polling on the national environment is extremely consistent and high quality, much more so than polling on specific races. By using this polling and adjusting it to specific races using other data points such as state partisan lean and incumbency. Finally, it's important to address the consistent polling errors in favor of Democrats. This trend has actually been occurring since 1980 (in 17 of the last 21 house elections Republicans won a higher percentage of the vote than predicted by 538's generic ballot polls—by an average of 2.7%) but has snowballed in the Trump era. Our model learns from past results about this shortcoming and naturally adjusts in future predictions. If you have any more questions about our modeling, be sure to contact us through our chat or our form on our about page.

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