2022 House Guide: Alabama, Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, and North Carolina
Current Partisan Split: 6-1 Republicans (+5.0)
Projected Partisan Split after 2022: 6-1 Republicans (+5.0)
Alabama’s congressional map remained largely unchanged, and the delegation will remain mostly the same in 2022. Mo Brooks’ (R) retirement leaves AL-05 open for a new Republican to take over; the Republican primary effectively serves as the general election for the district. The most competitive seat in the state is Terri Sewell’s (D) AL-07, which we rate as D+28.
Current Partisan Split: 4-0 Republicans (+4.0)
Projected Partisan Split after 2022: 4-0 Republicans (+4.0)
Arkansas Republicans shored up French Hill’s (R) AR-02 seat during this redistricting cycle. Hill faced stiff competition in 2018 and 2020, but now will be much safer in an R+18 seat. Republicans should hold all 4 seats easily throughout the decade.
Current Partisan Split: 3-1 Republicans (+2.0)
Projected Partisan Split after 2022: 3.5-0.5 Republicans (+3.0)
After Democrats claimed a 3-1 majority in Iowa’s delegation in 2018, Republicans quickly flipped IA-01 and IA-02 back to their control in 2020. Iowa’s map remains largely unchanged for this decade, but control of seats may shift around greatly. Notably, IA-01 and IA-02 switched district numbers, but represent an extremely similar area to their predecessor districts. Ashley Hinson (R) will enjoy a slightly more right-leaning IA-02 district (R+9), and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) has seen her IA-01 district shift slightly to the left (R+7). Hinson and Miller-Meeks could be vulnerable at times this decade, but these seats should be safe in 2022. Republicans hope to flip Cindy Axne’s (D) IA-03 seat, which we now rate as R+5. We rate this seat as “Tilt R,” as Axne only won her seat by a single point in a much better environment in 2020.
Current Partisan Split: 3-0 Republicans (+3.0)
Projected Partisan Split after 2022: 2.9-0.1 Republicans (+2.8)
Nebraska’s congressional map is largely unchanged from the previous decade’s map, with the primary difference that Don Bacon’s (R) NE-02 has shifted three points further to the right. Biden carried NE-02 in 2020, but Bacon still won re-election by nearly 5 points. We still rate NE-02 as a D+2 seat, but Bacon is such a strong incumbent that we rate his seat as “Likely R” in 2022.
Current Partisan Split: 8-5 Republicans (+3.0)
Projected Partisan Split after 2022: 10.5-3.5 Republicans (+7.0)
The GOP hopes to gain ground in North Carolina in 2022, hoping their new partisan gerrymander will not be overturned like their last one. Republicans not only created a new red seat, NC-14, but also will flip Greensboro area seat NC-11 (previously NC-06). The gerrymander also aims to flip NC-02 (previously NC-01), creating an R+2 seat in the northeast portion of the state. Democratic incumbent G.K Butterfield chose not to run for re-election in his newly competitive district, leaving NC-02 as a “Lean R” seat in 2022. After all this gerrymandering, Republicans did not have the votes left to shore up their incumbents completely. NC-04 and NC-14 are only R+11 and R+12 districts that could be vulnerable in extreme Democratic environments in 2026 or 2030. Madison Cawthorn chose to run in the much safer NC-13 (R+25) rather than his home district of NC-14, angering the Republican establishment in North Carolina.