Redistricting is underway in the majority of states right now, and it's time to begin focusing on matchups that are likely to take place in 2022. Republicans certainly stand to gain in 2022, and it is extremely likely that they win control of the House at this point. But Democrats will look to keep this margin as low as possible for Republicans, not only to hold onto as much power in the chamber as possible but also to set themselves up for 2024.
Colorado
Current Partisan Split: 4-3 Democrats (+1.0)
Projected Partisan Split after 2022: 4.2-3.8 Democrats (+0.4)
After Colorado gained an extra seat for the 2021 redistricting cycle, state Republicans and Democrats argued about how to change the current 4D-3R map. But with an independent redistricting committee, this eighth seat was always going to be competitive to keep relatively proportional representation in the light blue state. Biden won the new district (CO-08) by 4.6 points in 2020, slightly more than he won the national popular vote by. This district is open, and we rate it as a “Tilt R” in 2022 given the positive political environment for Republicans. The three Republicans on the current delegation are extremely likely to keep their seats, and all four Democrats will likely hold onto theirs. In disaster scenarios for Democrats Jason Crow (CO-06) and Ed Perlmutter (CO-07), they could see semi-contested races. But this is not likely at all, we rate these districts as D+19 and D+10, respectively.
Indiana
Current Partisan Split: 7-2 Republicans (+5.0)
Projected Partisan Split after 2022: 7.2-1.8 Republicans (+5.4)
The new Indiana map remains largely unchanged from the past decade’s map. The major change is in Victoria Spartz’s (R) IN-05 district, which will be significantly safer this decade than the last. In the late 2010s, the northern suburbs of Indianapolis moved significantly to the left. But these blue suburbs are now included in André Carson’s IN-07 district, which is now a major Democratic vote sink. We rate Spartz's new district as R+20. The only flip opportunity for Republicans is in Frank Mrvan’s IN-01 district, which was drawn to be extremely similar to his past district. Republicans could have made a major play for an 8-1 majority, but instead left it as a D+4 district. Even in a Republican environment, Mrvan is such a strong incumbent that we rate this race as “Likely D.”
Maine
Current Partisan Split: 2-0 Democrats (+2.0)
Projected Partisan Split after 2022: 1.3-0.7 Democrats (+0.6)
The new Maine map is largely unchanged from the prior map. Chellie Pingree still represents the southern half of the state (ME-01) while Jared Golden represents the northern half of the state (ME-02). We rate Golden’s district as R+11, but Golden won his race comfortably in 2020 (by 6 points). Republicans still have the edge to flip Golden’s seat in this strong environment, and we rate the race as “Lean R.” ME-02 will be one of the most closely watched and high-cost races in this cycle.
Oregon
Current Partisan Split: 4-1 Democrats (+3)
Projected Partisan Split after 2022: 4.1-1.9 Democrats (+2.2)
National Democrats thought Oregon could be one of the places Democrats gained seats in 2022, as state Democrats had the ability to pass a partisan gerrymander and the state added a seat after the 2020 census. Democrats may be disappointed in the short-term implications of this new map however, as we project Democrats will lose ground in Oregon in the short term. Democrats chose to create a new seat (OR-06) that leans to the left (D+9) to attempt to build a 5-1 majority throughout most of the 2020s. But by creating this new seat, Democrats passed on the opportunity to shore up Peter DeFazio and Kurt Schrader’s current seats, OR-04 and OR-05. We rate these seats as only D+8 and D+4 respectively, and neither DeFazio nor Schrader has a track record of being a particularly strong incumbent. We rate OR-04 and OR-06 as “Lean D,” and OR-05 as only “Tilt D.” The GOP could pick up multiple seats in Oregon in 2020.