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Republican chances to flip this seat hinge on Nevada continuing to move right relative to the nation as a whole. Nevada could easily decide control of the Senate in scenarios where Democrats hold a slight advantage in the national political environment but education polarization continues to increase, helping them in AZ, GA, and NH but hurting them in NV. AZ, GA, and NH are more educated than the national average, but NV is 46th. Keep an eye on this race.

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