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It is hard to imagine NC being the tipping point for Senate control given North Carolina is a considerably worse opportunity for Democrats than holding NH, GA, and AZ as well as picking up PA. However, if Democrats want any chance of holding the Senate from 2024-2028, winning NC and getting to 52 seats would help their cause. The Republican candidate is likely to be embattled past governor, Pat McCrory. McCrory was an ardent support of North Carolina's "bathroom bill," and was surprisingly defeated by Roy Cooper in 2018 (who ran on repealing the bathroom bill). It's hard to know how effective of a candidate for Senate McCrory will be, electorally. For now, the Veritium Team expects his positives and negatives to roughly wash.
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